Using self-reported health measures to predict high-need cases among Medicaid-eligible adults.

OBJECTIVE To assess the ability of different self-reported health (SRH) measures to prospectively identify individuals with high future health care needs among adults eligible for Medicaid. DATA SOURCES The 1997-2008 rounds of the National Health Interview Survey linked to the 1998-2009 rounds of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (n = 6,725). STUDY DESIGN Multivariate logistic regression models are fitted for the following outcomes: having an inpatient visit; membership in the top decile of emergency room utilization; and membership in the top cost decile. We examine the incremental predictive ability of six different SRH domains (health conditions, mental health, access to care, health behaviors, health-related quality of life [HRQOL], and prior utilization) over a baseline model with sociodemographic characteristics. Models are evaluated using the c-statistic, integrated discrimination improvement, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Self-reports of prior utilization provide the greatest predictive improvement, followed by information on health conditions and HRQOL. Models including these three domains meet the standard threshold of acceptability (c-statistics range from 0.703 to 0.751). CONCLUSIONS SRH measures provide a promising way to prospectively profile Medicaid-eligible adults by likely health care needs.